Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1518
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
F9 1518 · RDU → PHL
departs 9:43 AM ET · arrives 11:15 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9.2 mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.