Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1540
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
F9 1540 · IND → MCO
departs 7:10 PM ET · arrives 9:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 22%
Thu 10/1 30%
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3 23%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.