F9 1820 · PHX → DEN

took off 9:02 PM MT · landed 11:22 PM MT (scheduled 8:47 PM MT → 11:41 PM MT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late did it get to DEN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ DEN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

DEN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1820 · PHX → DEN

Odds over time

How late did it get to DEN?