Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1850
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
F9 1850 · SFO → LAS
departs 4:30 PM PT · arrives 6:23 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 35%
Thu 10/1 39%
Fri 10/2 35%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 31%
Tue 10/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±0 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 56% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 54% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
31%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.