Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2715 LANDED 4:52 PM ET, ~2 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

F9 2715 · RSW → CLE

took off 2:43 PM ET · landed 4:52 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.12 in

CLE (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2715 · RSW → CLE

Odds over time