Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2815
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
F9 2815 · PHL → JAX
departs 4:57 PM ET · arrives 7:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 52%
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
4pm departures from PHL are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.