Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2815
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
F9 2815 · PHL → JAX
departs 6:32 PM ET · arrives 8:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at PHL that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from PHL are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.23 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.