Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2815
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 2815 · PHL → JAX
departs 10:57 AM ET · arrives 1:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Fri 10/2 20%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.