Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2815
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
F9 2815 · PHL → JAX
departs 10:00 AM ET · arrives 12:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 28%
Sun 10/4 46%
Mon 10/5 21%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.36 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.86 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.