Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2815
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
F9 2815 · PHL → JAX
departs 6:32 PM ET · arrives 8:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 18%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.