Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2815
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
F9 2815 · PHL → JAX
departs 12:38 PM ET · arrives 2:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 32%
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
PHL is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.