Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3221
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
F9 3221 · RSW → CVG
departs 6:01 PM ET · arrives 8:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from RSW are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG
Weather at each end
RSW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.