Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3316
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
F9 3316 · SMF → LAX
departs 8:08 PM PT · arrives 9:43 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 22%
Thu 10/1 33%
Fri 10/2 34%
Sat 10/3 29%
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.