Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3985 LANDED 8:11 AM CT, ~15 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

F9 3985 · PHL → DFW

took off 6:19 AM ET · landed 8:11 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3985 · PHL → DFW

Odds over time