Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4156 LANDED 1:52 AM PT, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

F9 4156 · SFO → LAS

took off 12:36 AM PT · landed 1:52 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 18h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4156 · SFO → LAS

Odds over time