F9 4157 · LAS → SFO

departs 4:20 PM PT · arrives 6:05 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±2 pts +30 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day

↑ 4pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.09 in

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4157 · LAS → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?