Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Wednesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4157 SCHEDULED

Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow

F9 4157 · LAS → SFO

departs 1:30 PM PT · arrives 3:25 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±7 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4157 · LAS → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?