Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4186
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
F9 4186 · DEN → DTW
departs 6:59 PM MT · arrives 11:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 58%
Thu 10/1 35%
Fri 10/2 32%
Sat 10/3 33%
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.