Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4306
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
F9 4306 · SFO → SAN
departs 10:23 PM PT · arrives 12:04 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 36%
Thu 10/1 50%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 32%
Sun 10/4 44%
Mon 10/5 40%
Tue 10/6 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 44% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from SFO are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.