Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4593
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
F9 4593 · LAX → SFO
departs 7:07 PM PT · arrives 8:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 37%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3 23%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 31%
Tue 10/6 23%
Wed 10/7 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.