Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4661
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
F9 4661 · MCO → PNS
departs 3:13 PM ET · arrives 3:46 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 39%
Sat 10/3 46%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 16%
Thu 10/8 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at PNS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PNS?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PNS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 9,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.