Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3438 LANDED 7:10 PM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

MQ 3438 · MIA → EYW

took off 6:37 PM ET · landed 7:10 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.25 mi, 1.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at EYW that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ EYW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.21 in

EYW (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.80 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3438 · MIA → EYW

Odds over time