Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3486 LANDED 5:45 PM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

MQ 3486 · ORD → JAX

took off 2:56 PM CT · landed 5:45 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

JAX (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3486 · ORD → JAX

Odds over time