Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3492 LANDED 12:26 PM CT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

MQ 3492 · ORD → CMI

took off 11:57 AM CT · landed 12:26 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at CMI more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day

↓ CMI usually runs smoothly

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

CMI (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3492 · ORD → CMI

Odds over time