Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3514
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
MQ 3514 · STS → PHX
departs 1:00 PM PT · arrives 3:09 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 17%
Thu 10/1 19%
Fri 10/2 18%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi forecast at STS that day
Weather at each end
STS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.