MQ 3523 · DCA → BOS

departs 10:18 PM ET · arrives 11:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 10pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3523 · DCA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?