Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3559
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
MQ 3559 · ORD → GSP
departs 3:48 PM CT · arrives 6:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 33%
Thu 10/1 51%
Fri 10/2 18%
Sat 10/3 21%
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at GSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to GSP?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
GSP (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.