Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3715
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
MQ 3715 · GRR → ORD
departs 5:36 PM ET · arrives 6:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 58%
Thu 10/1 60%
Fri 10/2 27%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GRR
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day
Weather at each end
GRR (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.