Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3730 LANDED 10:42 PM ET, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

MQ 3730 · DCA → JAX

took off 9:08 PM ET · landed 10:42 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 9pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9.6 mi Precipnone

JAX (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3730 · DCA → JAX

Odds over time