Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3786 LANDED 11:35 PM CT, ~13 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

MQ 3786 · ORD → BMI

took off 11:11 PM CT · landed 11:35 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at BMI more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 11pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ BMI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

BMI (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3786 · ORD → BMI

Odds over time