Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3786
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3786 · ORD → DAY
departs 9:35 AM CT · arrives 11:59 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 9/30 37%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 9%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAY more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±4 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DAY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DAY?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
9am departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.11 in
DAY (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.