Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3820 IN THE AIR (OFF 3:13 PM CT, ETA 4:52 PM CT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

MQ 3820 · DFW → FSD

took off 3:13 PM CT · expected to land 4:52 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FSD (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.40 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3820 · DFW → FSD

Odds over time