Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3820 LANDED 5:58 PM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

MQ 3820 · DFW → FSD

took off 3:59 PM CT · landed 5:58 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?

78% chance · ±0 pts +48 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ FSD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

FSD (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3820 · DFW → FSD

Odds over time