Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3823
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
MQ 3823 · BNA → TPA
departs 1:30 PM CT · arrives 4:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 26%
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
BNA is busy at that time
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.