Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3823
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3823 · BNA → TPA
departs 1:30 PM CT · arrives 4:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/3 39%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at BNA that day
↑
1pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.05 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.