Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3823
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3823 · BNA → TPA
departs 1:30 PM CT · arrives 4:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 35%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
29%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
23%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +22 pts in 24h
+22 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
23%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
1pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at BNA that day
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.34 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.