Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3823
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3823 · BNA → TPA
departs 1:30 PM CT · arrives 4:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±4 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at BNA that day
↑
1pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.