Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3827
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
MQ 3827 · TUL → ORD
departs 7:49 PM CT · arrives 10:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 30%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.