Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3848
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
MQ 3848 · ORD → XNA
departs 11:45 AM CT · arrives 1:41 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 14%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
XNA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.