Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3859 LANDED 4:25 PM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

MQ 3859 · DFW → FSM

took off 3:45 PM CT · landed 4:25 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FSM (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3859 · DFW → FSM

Odds over time