Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3874
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
MQ 3874 · PHX → ELP
departs 9:45 PM MT · arrives 11:59 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 33%
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 23%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
9pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Gusts to 37 kt, cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, thunderstorms forecast at ELP that day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.34 in
ELP (destination)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.