Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3908
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
MQ 3908 · RAP → ORD
departs 12:41 PM MT · arrives 4:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 29%
Thu 10/1 51%
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave RAP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RAP
Weather at each end
RAP (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.