Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3918 LANDED 9:20 AM CT, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

MQ 3918 · ORD → GRB

took off 8:46 AM CT · landed 9:20 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at GRB more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into GRB at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

GRB (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3918 · ORD → GRB

Odds over time