Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3981
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
MQ 3981 · ORD → AVL
departs 8:10 AM CT · arrives 11:09 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 26%
Fri 10/2 18%
Sat 10/3 11%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at AVL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to AVL?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
AVL (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.