Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4000
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
MQ 4000 · ORD → MSP
departs 5:48 PM CT · arrives 7:34 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 15%
Tue 10/6 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MSP that day
↑
5pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 0.54 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.