Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4042 LANDED 9:41 AM CT, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

MQ 4042 · ORD → OMA

took off 8:25 AM CT · landed 9:41 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at OMA that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Arrivals into OMA at that hour are usually not late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

OMA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.47 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4042 · ORD → OMA

Odds over time