Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4091
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
MQ 4091 · PHX → FAT
departs 2:24 PM MT · arrives 4:07 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Thu 10/1 18%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
2pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.34 in
FAT (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.