Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4155 LANDED 9:46 AM CT, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

MQ 4155 · ORD → TUL

took off 8:24 AM CT · landed 9:46 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into TUL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

TUL (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4155 · ORD → TUL

Odds over time