Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4246 LANDED 11:24 PM ET, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

MQ 4246 · ORD → TRI

took off 9:15 PM CT · landed 11:24 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at TRI more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ TRI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

TRI (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4246 · ORD → TRI

Odds over time