Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4307 LANDED 8:16 PM PT, ~41 MIN EARLY

Tuesday, September 29

MQ 4307 · PHX → SEA

took off 5:37 PM MT · landed 8:16 PM PT (scheduled 5:55 PM MT → 9:05 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SEA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SEA that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

SEA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4307 · PHX → SEA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SEA?